Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

The Retail Market as a Stock and Economic Indicator

by September 27, 2022
September 27, 2022
The Retail Market as a Stock and Economic Indicator

As the selloff continues, our Big View service Risk Gauge has been bearish for weeks, signaling risk off. Most of our portfolio strategies hold more than 50% cash, some are short, and my discretionary service is looking to deploy capital soon.

Today, we’ll focus on what the retail sector, represented by the SPDR Retail ETF (AKA Granny, Modern Family member), is telling us about the economy and the market’s direction. The Modern Family looks at industries that lead the economy (housing, retail, and transportation, to name a few). Is XRT signaling that there is more economic trouble ahead?

It’s hardly surprising that XRT has underperformed the SPY recently, since retailers face historic high inflation and consumers are under pressure. If we look at the price history of XRT, every time the sector has taken a nosedive, it’s been accompanied by a steep decline in the S&P 500. The most recent examples can be seen in March 2020 and in 2008, and we are seeing similar signs now. XRT will struggle as the business cycle weakens.

On a daily timeframe, XRT has already closed well below its respective 200-day average. It is also -36.5% year-to-date down compared to the SPY decline of -23.8%. Real Motion is showing continued downward momentum. Granny Retail is warning us that a recession is on the horizon, and lower stock prices are possible.

A current retest of XRT’s recent lows of around $57/share might represent the beginning of a bottoming process, but Granny could fall much further if past bear markets are a guide. Keep an eye on the retail sector and stay ahead of the curve.

For more information on how to recognize and trade trending sectors,  please reach out to Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, by clicking here.

Mish’s Upcoming Seminars

ChartCon 2022: October 7-8th, Seattle (FULLY VIRTUAL EVENT). Join me and 16 other elite market experts for live trading rooms, fireside chats, and panel discussions. Learn more here.

The Money Show: Join me and many wonderful speakers at the Money Show in Orlando, beginning October 30th running thru November 1st; spend Halloween with us!

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish talks about key averages, yields and commodities on this appearance on Bloomberg TV.

A business cycle is about 6-7 years – where are the indices now and what should you watch for? Mish discusses this question in this appearance on Fox’s Making Money with Charles Payne.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): Testing the previous low; 362 support, 370 resistance.Russell 2000 (IWM): Broke the June low of 165.18; 162 support, 170 resistance.Dow (DIA): Broke June low; 289 support, 298 resistance.Nasdaq (QQQ): Testing the June low; 269 support, 280 resistance.KRE (Regional Banks): 57 support, 61 resistance.SMH (Semiconductors): 187 support, 194 resistance.IYT (Transportation): 196 support, 204 resistance.IBB (Biotechnology): 112 support, 118 resistance.XRT (Retail): 55 support, 60 resistance.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
EXCLUSIVE: Trump-Endorsed Arizona Attorney General Nominee And Former Prosecutor Abe Hamadeh HAMMERS Woke Anti-Police Radical Kris Mayes During AG Candidate Forum (VIDEO)
next post
BIDEN ECONOMY: And Now the Housing Market Tanks

You may also like

Mish’s Daily: Sister Semiconductors — A Gauge of...

December 22, 2022

Retail Stocks Caught in Limbo: Will RTH Break...

June 6, 2024

Bearish Divergences Cause Market to Drop

July 7, 2023

Gold Top? Focus on These Potential Price Objectives

June 17, 2024

DP Trading Room: Behind the Scenes: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

July 22, 2024

GNG TV: Enough Leadership for Bull Market After...

January 19, 2023

The Largest IPO In 2 Years Launched Last...

September 16, 2023

Breadth Indicators Illustrate Recent Dire Conditions

October 10, 2023

Disney Stock Options Strategy: A Detailed Guide to...

October 18, 2024

Week Ahead: While Uptrend Stays Intact In Nifty,...

July 17, 2023

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Britain’s fastest-growing firms revealed for 2025: Dfyne, Nala’s Baby and Hawkstone lead the charge

      June 29, 2025
    • Schumer to force Senate reading of Trump’s entire ‘big, beautiful bill’

      June 28, 2025
    • Rubio condemns Iran’s ‘unacceptable’ threats against IAEA director

      June 28, 2025
    • Key blue state Republican says Senate’s local tax write-off offer is a ‘good deal’

      June 28, 2025
    • Key GOP senator defects on crucial vote, imperiling Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ in narrow majority

      June 28, 2025
    • Terror in Gaza: Hamas offers bounties to kill US and local aid workers, group says

      June 28, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,330)
    • Investing (2,081)
    • Politics (15,851)
    • Stocks (3,177)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved