Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

Were There Technical Warnings Ahead of the Regional Banking Crash? Oh, Yeah!

by March 23, 2023
March 23, 2023
Were There Technical Warnings Ahead of the Regional Banking Crash? Oh, Yeah!

With the recent crash of the Regional Banking ETF (KRE) some may wonder if there were adequate technical warnings ahead of the crash. Yes, there were. To clarify, we’re looking for reasons not to be long this ETF.

(1) To begin, last April the KRE 50EMA crossed down through the 200EMA (a Death Cross), giving an LT Trend Model SELL Signal. We view mechanical signals as information flags, not action commands, so this informed us that the long-term technical picture had turned negative. This never changed.

(2) The 20EMA crossed down through the 50EMA (Dark Cross) on March 7, two days before the crash. This was an IT Trend Model SELL Signal, the third since the Death Cross, so we would want to examine other indications to give it context.

(3) There was a PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) crossover SELL Signal, which is when the PMO crosses down through its signal line (10EMA). Also, the PMO was falling about three weeks ahead of the crash, a condition during which we do not want to be long.

(4) Finally, for this chart, On-Balance Volume (OBV) was falling since August, showing volume moving out, while price moved sideways.

Next, our participation analysis below dumps more bearish evidence onto the pile.

(1) Our Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of KRE component stocks with the 20EMA above the 50EMA (Silver Cross). We can see it declining and crossing down through its signal line weeks before the crash, and the reading was only 40% just before the crash.

(2) The Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows that only 51% of stocks had their 50EMA above their 200EMA (Golden Cross).

(3) The Percent Stocks Above 20/50/200EMA showed participation crashing well ahead of the final price crash, and their readings were in the basement the day before the bottom fell out.

Conclusion: Waiting until a few days before the crash, there was an abundance of technical evidence telling us that KRE was not a good candidate for a long position. To say the least! While we may not have forseen the final calamity, there was no justification for being long. At the time of this writing, on the top chart we can see a bearish reverse pennant formation, from which price has broken down, forecasting a continuing price decline.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2023 DecisionPoint.com

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Alert Chart List

DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List

DecisionPoint Sector Chart List

DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Trump grand jury expected to report back on Thursday, according to court source
next post
Confirming the 1-2-3 Reversal

You may also like

Why the MACD Pinch Play is So Valuable

August 3, 2023

The Hoax of Modern Finance – Part 5:...

January 26, 2024

What Seasonality Charts Reveal About the Top Sectors...

November 12, 2024

RGTI Stock Surged 30% — Is This the...

July 17, 2025

The Halftime Show: Crude Oil Back in the...

December 14, 2023

Top Five Charts of 2023 #3: Market Breadth...

December 20, 2023

Major Investing Themes Upcoming

June 9, 2023

Small-Caps Take Pole Position In Overbought Market

December 8, 2023

The Four Scenarios for the S&P 500

January 14, 2023

The Ord Oracle May 16, 2023

May 17, 2023

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Mitchell Geisler on Listening, Leadership and Business Growth

      August 23, 2025
    • 10 key takeaways from DOJ’s release of Ghislaine Maxwell’s Epstein interviews

      August 23, 2025
    • Jackson’s scathing dissent levels partisan charge at colleagues after high-profile ruling

      August 23, 2025
    • Starmer accused of betraying farmers as British food pledge stalls

      August 22, 2025
    • Fed rate cut looms after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

      August 22, 2025
    • Tariff “Inclusion” Process Comes with High Costs, Absurd Outcomes, and Extra Cronyism

      August 22, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,858)
    • Investing (2,235)
    • Politics (16,465)
    • Stocks (3,228)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved