Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Investing

Apportionment & Immigration: 95 Percent of Noncitizen Growth Went to GOP States Since 2019

by January 24, 2024
January 24, 2024
Apportionment & Immigration: 95 Percent of Noncitizen Growth Went to GOP States Since 2019

David J. Bier

In response to a question about restricting immigration, House Representative Yvette D. Clarke (D‑NY) recently stated, “I need more people in my district just for redistricting purposes.” When a Republican member of Congress asked whether this was the motivation for other Democrats, including President Biden, to oppose more extreme asylum restrictions during a committee hearing at which I testified last week, former head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement Tom Homan stated:

I certainly believe it’s probably associated with the decision to overturn the Trump Census rule, so now [immigrants] will be mandated to be counted in the Census. When we reapportionate [sic] seats, it’s going to have an effect.

Although former President Trump did attempt to exclude some noncitizens from the Census count and from House apportionment, multiple courts found those efforts to be illegal and unconstitutional. The Constitution is clear: “Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state.” But does this provision of the Constitution—whatever its merits—give Republicans a good reason to oppose immigration?

No, the data are equally clear: recent immigration trends are benefiting Republicans in states where they control the legislature and manage redistricting. About 62 percent of the three‐​million increase in the total immigrant population from March 2019 to March 2023 has occurred in GOP states, according to the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

The American Community Survey (with a larger sample size but slightly older data) attributes 60 percent of the growth in the immigrant population to GOP states from July 2019 to July 2022. These percentages are also similar for the Latin American immigrant population growth.

What about noncitizens who might be excluded by a US citizen‐​only census? For them, an overwhelming 95 percent of the increase in the noncitizen population has been in GOP states from March 2019 to March 2023. Eliminating the growth in the noncitizen population from 2019 to 2023 would have cost Republican states 1.2 million people, or about two seats in Congress (the average congressional district has 760,367 people). Figure 1 shows the net increase in immigrant populations for states under GOP and Democratic control.

Table 1 shows the full data from the Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement for March 2023 and March 2019. The Republican state leading this trend is Texas, which netted 515,970 noncitizens and 833,028 immigrants overall. Other Republican states experiencing significant growth in their immigrant populations include Kentucky (130,061 noncitizens and 146,790 immigrants), South Carolina (102,096 and 157,396), and Florida (102,055 and 178,052). It is certainly likely that these states are attracting immigrants because of their strong job growth.

The argument that recent immigration is boosting Democratic representation in Congress is unsubstantiated. In 2015, I rebutted this same claim about recent illegal immigration. I noted, “Illegal immigration from 2000 to 2010 netted the Republicans about six seats in redistricting. Democrats managed only about 4.5, giving the Republican states yet again more than a seat advantage.” Clearly, immigration has not helped Democrats in terms of apportionment for decades. Yet, this misconception has become so entrenched that the former president tried to unconstitutionally exclude some noncitizens from the Census count.

I have also explained how it is false that Republicans fare poorly during periods when the immigrant share of the population is high. Republicans have controlled at least one chamber of Congress 85 percent of the years when the immigrant share of the population exceeded 10 percent, while not controlling either chamber 83 percent of all other years. This is a staggering disparity that has been completely overlooked in current political discourse. Republicans should not fear immigration based on unfounded political concerns.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Getting to Know You: Federico Charosky, Founder & CEO, Quorum Cyber
next post
Trump’s Lawyers: FOIA Ignorance Edition

You may also like

New Survey: Polarization Is Deep, But Localism Might...

August 28, 2024

Simpson-Bowles 2.0 Won’t Cut It, a BRAC-like Commission...

October 17, 2024

Remembering David Boaz

June 7, 2024

Six Reforms to Enhance Transparency and Fiscal Accountability...

January 31, 2024

Eliminate Government Holidays

December 13, 2024

New Cato Study Confirms Fed Cannot Control Inflation

November 6, 2023

Psychedelic Legalization

July 3, 2025

Friday Feature: Positive Tomorrows

July 18, 2025

The Return of Blasphemy and Sacrilege Laws in...

January 23, 2024

New York City Can’t Force Owners to Rent...

June 12, 2023

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Russian drone crashes in Polish field; Warsaw protests airspace violation and plans formal complaint

      August 21, 2025
    • Gabbard launches ‘ODNI 2.0,’ with plan to cut workforce by 40%

      August 20, 2025
    • How to set up a smart home on a budget after graduation

      August 20, 2025
    • A Retired Warfighter’s Perspective on the Protectionist BOOTS Act

      August 20, 2025
    • Preserving Educational Choice: Isolated Cases of Misuse Shouldn’t Derail ESA Progress

      August 20, 2025
    • Deregulate the Remittance Industry

      August 20, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,838)
    • Investing (2,227)
    • Politics (16,449)
    • Stocks (3,228)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved