Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

Week Ahead: NIFTY Set To Consolidate In A Broad Range; Runaway Moves Unlikely Below These Levels

by February 11, 2024
February 11, 2024
Week Ahead: NIFTY Set To Consolidate In A Broad Range; Runaway Moves Unlikely Below These Levels

Two weeks of decline, one week of advance, and a week of consolidation. This is what sums up the market activity over the past month. The markets consolidated over the past week and stayed largely within a defined trading range. The previous five sessions have remained choppy with the Nifty managing to cling to the short-term 20-day MA; while on the weekly charts, it continues to stay prone to consolidation. The trading range got narrower as the index oscillated in a 423-point range during the week. The headline index finally closed with a negligible weekly loss of 71.30 points (-0.33%).

From a technical perspective, the markets are demonstrating a higher possibility of some consolidation or a limited corrective retracement. The zone of 22100-22200 is a major resistance zone as evidenced through pattern analysis as well as OI data. Also, the wider-than-usual bands are also likely to keep the markets in a broad trading range. A runaway upmove is likely only if the Nifty crosses the 22100-22200 zone convincingly; until this happens, we will see the markets staying prone and vulnerable to profit-taking bouts at higher levels. Volatility continued surging higher; India VIX rose by 5.10% to 15.45 on a weekly note.

The markets are likely to see a quiet start to the week; the levels of 21900 and 22080 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports are likely to come in at 21600 and 21480 levels.

The weekly RSI is 68.91; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above the signal line. The narrowing Histogram hints at a deceleration of momentum is also observed as well.

The pattern analysis on the weekly charts shows that the Nifty saw a breakout once it crossed above 20800 levels. This breakout from the rising channel saw the Index testing its recent highs above 22000 levels. Presently, the Index is seen consolidating and some minor retracements cannot be ruled out. A sustainable upmove shall take place only after the Nifty manages to cross above the 22100-22200 zone.

The coming week continues to hint at a possible consolidation or a minor retracement in Nifty. However, we can see Nifty Bank, one of the key sector indices, bettering its relative strength. Along with Nifty Bank, we can expect resilient performance from defensive pockets like IT, Pharma, FMCG, etc. It is strongly advised to avoid large leveraged positions. While adopting a highly selective approach, vigilant protection of profits is also advised at higher levels.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that Nifty PSE, Realty, PSU Bank, Infrastructure, Metal, IT, Commodities, and Energy indices are inside the leading quadrant of the RRG. While the Realty Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum, all the other groups are set to relatively outperform the broader markets.

The Nifty Auto and Midcap 100 Index remains in the weakening quadrant. Individual performance from these sectors may not be ruled out but they may continue to slow down on their relative performance.

The Nifty Financial Service, FMCG, Consumption, Nifty Bank, and Media Indices continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. While the Media Index stays deep inside the lagging quadrant, the Pharma Index is showing sharp improvement in its relative momentum despite being inside the lagging quadrant. Except for the Pharma Index, the other groups may relatively underperform the broader index.

The Nifty Services Sector index is the only one inside the improving quadrant; however, it also appears to be on the verge of rolling inside the lagging quadrant.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Trump mocks Haley by asking where her deployed husband is: ‘Where is he? He’s gone’
next post
Secrets of Success: AJ Sharp, CEO and Founder of Sharp Relations

You may also like

Market Participation Is Dismal

May 10, 2023

TOP 10 Stock Picks for May 2024

May 17, 2024

Big-Cap Tech Gets Taken Down

October 28, 2022

A Biotech Stock with a Breakout on the...

January 20, 2024

ChartPacks: The Quick and Easy Way to UNLEASH...

September 29, 2023

Will This Sector Rotation Be The Start Of...

July 18, 2024

Three Behavioral Biases Impacting Your Portfolio Right Now

February 4, 2025

Week Ahead: NIFTY Likely To Ring In The...

December 30, 2023

Important Inflection Point in FXI: Is It Time...

April 17, 2024

Gold Chart Looks a Lot Different In Other...

June 22, 2023

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • The FTC Event that Wasn’t: The Attention Economy Workshop Misses an Opportunity for Meaningful Discussion

      June 3, 2025
    • Grace-Marie Turner, RIP

      June 3, 2025
    • Challenges posed by Trump and Putin push UK to adopt new NATO first defense policy

      June 3, 2025
    • Trump DOJ investigating Biden-era pardons amid concerns over state of mind

      June 3, 2025
    • FBI calls for public tips on children hurt in ‘gender-affirming’ surgeries

      June 3, 2025
    • NP Aerospace secures multi-million-pound funding from NatWest to power global expansion

      June 3, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,129)
    • Investing (2,003)
    • Politics (15,485)
    • Stocks (3,122)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved