Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead

by August 9, 2024
August 9, 2024
TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.

The first chart shows TLT with the 5-day SMA (green), the 200-day SMA (red) and the Percent above MA (5,200,1) in the lower window. This indicator shows the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. Note that I placed signal thresholds at +3% and -3%. This means I want the 5-day SMA to be at least 3% above/below the 200-day SMA for a signal.

We cannot totally eliminate whipsaws, but we can reduce them with smoothing and signal thresholds. In the window above, we can see the indicator turning green and red as the 5-day crosses above/below the 200-day. There were at 21 crosses over the last four years. There were only three crosses using the 3% signal thresholds. Note that a 3% signal triggers with a move above 3% and remains valid until a move below -3%. Percent above MA(5,200,1) exceeded +3% this week to signal the start of a long-term uptrend. Note that Percent above MA is one of 11 indicators in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin (here).

As featured at TrendInvestorPro, the next chart shows TLT with some classic technical analysis at work, and a breakout to boot. First, TLT surged some 22% from late October to December. It then declined with a falling channel that retraced around 2/3 of this advance. TLT managed to hold well above the October low and break out of the channel. This higher low shows buying pressure stepping in at higher prices (above the October low). The breakout signals a continuation of the 22% advance and targets a move to the next resistance zone (109). Support is set at 90.

We are also seeing TLT outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) for the first time in over a year. The indicator window shows the TLT/RSP ratio flattening out in spring-summer and breaking above its June high (red line). It also broke the 200-day SMA. Admittedly, the relative breakout is still a work in progress. The breakout on the price chart, however, looks solid.

We featured the breakout in TLT over a week ago and will continue to monitor it at TrendInvestorPro. This week we covered the significance of a surging VIX and widening yield spreads. We also covered deteriorating breadth and put forth a target zone for SPY going forward. Click here for immediate access.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
What Would Consumer-Regulated Electricity Look Like?
next post
Best Casinos Not on Gamstop 2024 – Top 10 Non GamStop Casinos Ranked

You may also like

4 Indicators and The “Bear Market” Rally

October 17, 2022

The Nasdaq 100 vs the Rest of the...

June 11, 2023

DP Trading Room: S&P “Ten” Leading the Market?

September 12, 2022

DP Trading Room: Avoid These “Magnificent 7” Stocks!

February 12, 2024

Bullish Rotation Fully Supports Further Gains Ahead

December 3, 2023

The Hoax of Modern Finance – Part 10:...

February 29, 2024

Mish’s Daily: Granddad Russell 2000 and His Best...

August 22, 2022

Here’s How to Build Your Watch List for...

February 18, 2023

Your Brain on Trades, Part 2

September 14, 2022

DP Trading Room: New Market Bias Assessment Table

August 28, 2023

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Trump says he’s ‘not happy’ with Putin after massive Ukraine strike

      May 26, 2025
    • Democrats don’t need a ‘left-wing’ Joe Rogan, they need to win back the real one

      May 25, 2025
    • DAVID MARCUS: Jake Tapper chose lying Biden sources over his own eyes

      May 25, 2025
    • Record number of Americans apply for UK citizenship as Trump begins second term

      May 25, 2025
    • Learning Painful Lessons is the Start to Building a Successful Trading or Investing Strategy

      May 25, 2025
    • Clearing the Clutter: Why Efficient Property Clearance is a Hidden Asset for Businesses

      May 25, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,041)
    • Investing (1,986)
    • Politics (15,370)
    • Stocks (3,107)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved