Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

Investors Hesitant Ahead of Fed Meeting: How to Prepare

by September 17, 2024
September 17, 2024
Investors Hesitant Ahead of Fed Meeting: How to Prepare

The broader stock market indexes are still in a holding pattern as investors await the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Tuesday’s price action was a little like a “Whac-a-Mole” game for the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). Both indexes poked above their downward-sloping trendlines (the Nasdaq’s line is steeper) but fell back below them by Tuesday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), which hit an all-time high on Monday, also retreated, snapping its four-day up streak.

Small- and mid-cap stocks were Tuesday’s leaders, with the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index ($MID) up by 0.34% and the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index ($SML) up 0.60%. 

Turning to the Extended Factors Market Factors data panel on the StockCharts Dashboard, small-cap revenue (RWJ) and small-cap quality (XSHQ) ETFs were the biggest gainers. The Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF (RWJ) took the lead at the end of last week—we mentioned this in our weekly ChartWatchers newsletter—and continues gaining strength and momentum.

A Weekly Perspective

It’s worth breaking down the price action in RWJ before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, starting with the weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP 600 REVENUE ETF. RWJ has been trading within a range since early 2021. It’s getting ready to break out of the range, but whether it does will depend on how the Fed’s decision appeals to investors.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

RWJ has been in a trading range since early 2021 (blue rectangle). During that time, investors gravitated toward mega-cap Tech stocks while other asset classes, such as small-cap stocks, were left behind. But that could change depending on what the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday. Interest rate cuts would benefit small-cap stocks. That RWJ is trading above its trading range indicates that investors are hopeful the Fed will decide on a half-point rate cut.

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) in the top panel is at 89, which indicates that RWJ is technically strong. A rate cut could increase this score if investors continue accumulating this ETF. The relative strength index (RSI) is stalling between 50 and 70. A break above 70 would be positive for RWJ, whereas a fall below 50 would show that interest in the ETF is weakening.

But what if the Fed decides on a quarter-point cut instead of the half-point the market expects? Will investors get disappointed and sell off their small-cap stocks? Remember, the stock market can change quickly for no sound reason. This is why it’s best to map out bearish and bullish scenarios ahead of a volatile trading day.

Let’s examine RWJ’s daily chart to understand the two scenarios better.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF RWJ. The ETF must close above its last high of $45.39, and the MACD should reflect stronger buying pressure.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A series of higher highs will confirm an uptrend. If RWJ closes above its last high of $45.39, it could break the slightly bearish trend the ETF has been in for the last month and a half.

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, which is also trending lower, shows early signs of increasing bullish pressure. The MACD line has just crossed over the signal line, and the MACD histogram is slightly above the zero line. But it must be much more prominent to confirm a bullish move in RWJ.

If bullish momentum kicks in on Wednesday after the Fed makes its interest rate decision, an ideal entry point would be at $45.50, around its July 31 close. If the Fed’s decision disappoints and doesn’t favor small-cap stocks, then focus on which asset classes outperform from the Market Factors panel in the StockCharts Dashboard.

Closing Bell

If it’s time for small-cap stocks to shine, you could enter the bull run early. But remember, this is a new all-time high for RWJ, so if you enter a position, keep an eye on momentum. As long as momentum keeps the ETF rising, you can ride out your position, but if you have made a respectable profit and detect a slowdown, be prepared to exit your positions. There’s no reason to be married to an investment.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Tulsi Gabbard says she would be ‘honored’ to join a potential Trump administration
next post
Harris tells NABJ she expects to ‘earn’ the Black vote this November

You may also like

DP Trading Room: Sector Deep Dive

April 3, 2023

The Ord Oracle December 5, 2023

December 6, 2023

Recap and Action Plan: Small Caps, Beans, Oil

November 18, 2023

The Ord Oracle November 15, 2022

November 16, 2022

Simplify Your Analysis By Using Moving Average Lines

May 18, 2023

Markets Continue to Break Support

September 16, 2022

The Halftime Show: Are Broadline Retailers Starting to...

August 9, 2023

Is Intel Now A Market Leader?

March 30, 2023

Closing the Potential Gap

March 15, 2023

Micron’s Coiled for An Explosive Move (Up or...

June 10, 2025

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • How Staff Can Strengthen HIPAA Compliance and Security

      June 29, 2025
    • Lotus denies plans to close Hethel factory amid US expansion talks

      June 29, 2025
    • Top university degrees lose sway as tech employers prioritise job-ready skills

      June 29, 2025
    • Government urges supermarkets to make healthy food more appealing in bid to tackle obesity crisis

      June 29, 2025
    • Senate Republicans ram Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ through key test vote

      June 29, 2025
    • Chief Justice Roberts sounds alarm on dangerous rhetoric aimed at judges from politicians

      June 29, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,334)
    • Investing (2,081)
    • Politics (15,853)
    • Stocks (3,177)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved