Eric Gomez
The backlog of US weapons that have been sold but not delivered to Taiwan saw several changes in December 2024, the net result being a $77 million reduction in the backlog, which now stands at $21.87 billion.
The third-largest arms sale in the backlog, a July 2019 sale of 108 Abrams tanks valued at $2 billion, began delivery in December. This partial delivery is visualized in Figures 1 and 2, but for reasons explained below I have elected not to reduce the backlog’s dollar value until full delivery has occurred.
Two New Sales, and TOW Delivery
The Biden administration notified Congress of three new Foreign Military Sales (FMS) cases to Taiwan in December 2024. Two of these cases are included in the backlog. One case is not included because it procures equipment for Taiwanese fighter aircraft pilots who are conducting training in the United States.
The two new FMS cases included in the backlog are a $30 million sale of 16 MK 75 naval gun mounts and a $265 million sale of equipment to modernize various command, control, communication, and computer—also known as C4—systems. Congressional notification occurred on December 20, 2024, for both cases.
Similar to aircraft reconnaissance equipment, the database codes the naval gun mount as a traditional capability because it is a sub-component of another traditional capability. While most FMS cases entail the production of new equipment, the notification announcement mentions that the gun mounts will come from existing US stock. This should make for much faster delivery since the mounts will not need to be made from scratch. This is the first traditional capability sold to Taiwan by the Biden administration since an August 2023 sale of F‑16 infrared targeting pods.
C4 modernization is difficult to code because these capabilities support a wide variety of other equipment. For example, the announcement for this sale mentions one asymmetric (Patriot air and missile defense batteries) and two traditional (F‑16 and P‑3 aircraft) capabilities. I have coded the C4 modernization sale as an asymmetric capability. While the announcement mentions more traditional than asymmetric capabilities, modern C4 equipment will be able to better support Taiwan’s asymmetric capabilities.
December 2024 also saw the delivery of 1,700 TOW-2B anti-tank missiles that were sold across two FMS cases announced in December 2015 and July 2019. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), these missiles were supposed to be delivered in 2022 but were delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, raw material shortages, and quality control problems. The delivery of the missiles, which were coded as asymmetric capabilities, reduced the backlog by $372 million.
Table 1 shows an itemized list of the arms sales currently in the backlog. Green text denotes December’s additions to the backlog, while red text shows arms sales that completed delivery. The yellow text shows deliveries in progress as explained below.
First Abrams Tanks Arrive
The biggest Taiwan arms sale news in December 2024 was the delivery of 38 M1A2T Abrams tanks, the first of three batches that will deliver 108 tanks before the end of 2026. The $2 billion Abrams sale is the third largest in the backlog, behind an $8 billion F‑16 sale and a $2.37 billion sale of truck-mounted Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
Figuring out a way to categorize a partial delivery has been difficult. The addition of almost 40 Abrams tanks is a big deal for Taiwan’s ability to protect itself. But reducing the backlog’s dollar value proportionately is not a simple solution because the Abrams sale includes many other smaller capabilities in addition to the tanks that are harder to track.
I decided to keep the $2 billion figure as part of the backlog until full delivery of the tanks occurs. However, the data visualizations have been amended to show that delivery of this case is in progress. Going forward, this approach of retaining the dollar value while amending the visualization to show delivery in progress will be applied to all backlogged arms sales of $1 billion or more.
Where are the F‑16s?
As 2024 ended, there was a mystery surrounding the largest arms sale in the backlog, an $8 billion sale of 66 F‑16 aircraft. Similar to the Abrams, Taiwan was supposed to receive an initial group of fighters in 2024. In October 2024, Taiwan’s defense minister said that delivery of the first aircraft was expected by the end of the year, but there has been neither a sighting of the new aircraft nor an announcement from MND.
It is possible that one or more F‑16s arrived in Taiwan without any fanfare, but this would be unusual. Taiwan’s press and government are typically eager to report deliveries of major weapons systems, which are seen as a visible sign of US support. MND documents from earlier in 2024 indicated that the F‑16s were a few months behind schedule, but the ministry expected the first aircraft before the end of the year. If initial delivery has not occurred, then full delivery of Taiwan’s F‑16s may not happen until after 2026.
Taiwan Arms Backlog Dataset, December 2024