Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

Volatility Ahead: What Investors Need to Know Right Now

by March 31, 2025
March 31, 2025
Volatility Ahead: What Investors Need to Know Right Now

It was an ugly close to another roller-coaster trading week as the stock market struggled with several moving parts. Wednesday’s Evening Doji Star in the S&P 500 ($SPX) showed its power. The trading week didn’t end on a pretty note. 

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) all closed lower and are trading below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). And the selloff is across the board. It’s not concentrated in the heavily weighted stocks. 

The headwinds: Auto tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and hotter-than-expected PCE data. These have raised investor fear once again. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked higher on Friday, closing at 21.65.

From a sector perspective, Utilities was the only S&P sector that closed in the green on Friday, which reiterates defensive investor sentiment. This could continue for as long as investors worry about inflation and weakening U.S. economic growth. In addition to defensive sectors, other areas of the market show some bullish strength. 

What Are Investors Eyeing? 

Bond prices are rising. The daily chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is trading above its 50- and 100-day SMA. A break above the 200-day SMA would set a positive tone for bond prices although if past price action is of any value, TLT didn’t have much success the last couple of times it crossed above the 200-day. It could be different this time.

FIGURE 1. BOND PRICES SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE. Bond prices are now starting to rise. Will we see an RSI above 70 when TLT crosses above its 200-day simple moving average? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The relative strength index (RSI) in the lower panel is above 50. The last couple of times TLT crossed above its 200-day SMA, RSI failed to cross above 70, indicating a lack of momentum. However, if TLT crosses above its 200-day SMA and coincides with an RSI cross above 70, that could be an alert for a gain in momentum. 

Bonds were starting to trend higher after hitting their January lows but that uptrend consolidated from early March. There needs to be an upside follow-through for an uptrend to resume in bonds. There’s still time for it to play out but keep your eyes on this chart for the next few weeks.

Gold and silver prices have also been on a tear. Gold hit an all-time high on Friday while silver pulled back on Friday after Thursday’s price spike. Overall, the uptrend is still intact in both metals.

If you’re a regular reader of our ChartWatchers Newsletter, you’ll recognize the chart below which looks at the performance of various asset classes.  

FIGURE 2. PERFCHART OF DIFFERENT MARKETS. Gold and silver have outperformed most other asset groups. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Note how gold and silver prices are outperforming equities.  

Last but not least, let’s analyze the performance of the automobile sector, the most impacted industry group this week. Automobile stocks continue to slide. The daily chart of the Dow Jones US Automobiles Index ($DJUSAU) below displays a clear picture of the state of the industry. 

FIGURE 3. THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY. Things aren’t looking great for the automobile industry. After attempting to cross above the 200-day SMA, the Dow Jones Automobiles Index fell and is trending lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

After a healthy run in the second half of 2024, the industry has been in a steep decline, with any attempts of a rally being short-lived. On March 25, $DJUSAU crossed above its 200-day SMA but failed to hold above it. There’ll be more tariff news between now and April 2. So be prepared for more volatility in the automobile industry.  

The Bottom Line

Q1 has been pretty dismal, mainly due to tariff policies. There’s more to come. With “Liberation Day” approaching, expect more volatility in the stock market. There’s also the March jobs report on Friday. Equity futures are trading lower ahead of Monday’s open. 

We’ll end with a chart that every investor should be monitoring closely as we get through the next few months—a three-year weekly chart of the S&P 500. Feel free to save this to your ChartLists.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The index attempted to move beyond its July and August highs but didn’t succeed. With more tariff news on the horizon, will the S&P 500 succeed or will it move toward its March highs? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Echoing Hamas, Erdogan reportedly calls for Israel’s destruction amid push to rekindle ties with Trump
next post
The Best Five Sectors, #13

You may also like

Gold Gets A Shine

March 17, 2023

Bearish Engulfing Pattern Marks Top For NVDA?

March 9, 2024

Stay Ahead of the Stock Market: Key Bond...

April 18, 2025

Hershey Stock Pulls Back: Now’s Your Second Chance

May 24, 2023

The Ord Oracle August 16, 2022

August 17, 2022

Target’s Stock Defied Gravity When the Market Tanked:...

March 6, 2024

MEM TV Special: Characteristics of a New Bull...

October 5, 2022

Momentum is Back, Breadth Rallies; It’s Truth Time...

June 5, 2023

Should We Use Weakness To Accumulate NVDA Before...

October 22, 2023

Watch Out! Growth Stocks Can Be Threatened in...

July 28, 2023

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • XRP price prediction hits new highs, GMO Miner helps you earn $6,800 a day

      August 28, 2025
    • West End retailers lose £310m from VAT-free shopping ban in first half of year

      August 28, 2025
    • Dollar slips as Trump moves to sack Fed governor Lisa Cook in unprecedented clash over central bank independence

      August 28, 2025
    • CDC Director Susan Monarez refuses to be fired as other officials call it quits

      August 28, 2025
    • Bill Gates met with Trump to talk ‘importance of US global health programs and health research’: spox

      August 28, 2025
    • Trump asks SCOTUS to uphold freeze on billions in USAID payments

      August 27, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,900)
    • Investing (2,246)
    • Politics (16,503)
    • Stocks (3,228)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved