The cost of an iPhone could more than triple in the US market following President Donald Trump’s sweeping new trade tariffs, analysts have warned — a move likely to reverberate through global supply chains and consumer tech markets.
Apple, which assembles the vast majority of its devices in China, now faces a staggering 54% tariff on Chinese imports under Trump’s newly announced ‘Liberation Day’ tariff strategy. The price of producing the next-generation iPhone 16 Pro could rise from $580 to $850, according to TechInsights analyst Wayne Lam.
In turn, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives estimates that the retail price of a 256GB iPhone 16 Pro could soar from $1,100 to as much as $3,500, if Apple passes those costs directly on to consumers.
Trump’s protectionist policy aims to reshore manufacturing to the United States by making foreign-made goods significantly more expensive. However, industry experts argue that Apple lacks a commercially viable path to US-based production, particularly at scale.
“It’s not clear you can make a competitively priced smartphone here,” said Barton Crockett, senior analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, speaking to The Wall Street Journal.
Currently, assembling an iPhone in China costs Apple about $30 per unit — a cost that would be expected to increase tenfold if shifted to the US, Lam noted.
Apple declined to comment on the potential impact of the new tariffs, or whether it plans to raise prices or restructure its supply chain in response.
Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ declaration framed foreign trade practices as a national emergency, and introduced a new baseline of 10% tariffs on all imports to the US, effective from this Saturday.
In addition, more than 90 countries — including traditional US allies — are facing bespoke ‘reciprocal tariffs’, designed to eliminate bilateral trade deficits. These rates are calculated individually and are significantly higher for countries with larger US trade surpluses, such as China, Germany, and Vietnam.
In response, China has announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on all American imports, effective 10 April — mirroring the rate imposed on its own goods by the Trump administration. The move escalates the brewing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
“China’s new tariffs stop short of full-blown trade war, but they mark a clear escalation,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“They match Trump blow-for-blow and signal that Xi Jinping won’t sit back under pressure.”
Trump’s trade stance is already rattling markets and raising serious concerns among global technology firms, who rely heavily on international supply chains for production and distribution. Apple, one of the most exposed companies in this conflict, is under mounting pressure to evaluate its long-term supply strategy — but experts say relocating its hardware production to the US is not feasible in the near term.
The tariffs come at a time of intensifying geopolitical and economic friction, and further strain an already delicate trade relationship between Washington and Beijing. Analysts warn that a prolonged standoff could trigger inflationary pressures, reduced global demand, and slower economic growth, while undermining investor confidence.
“The longer this drags, the harder it becomes for either side to deescalate without losing face,” Singleton noted.
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iPhone prices could triple under Trump’s tariffs as Apple faces China tax blow