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Crude Oil has been in a short-term declining trend since the beginning of November. Big picture it is in a large trading range. After spending so much time being beat down, it is finally making the turn. This looks more promising than the last rally as the PMO didn’t confirm it.
Price hasn’t managed to pull out of its declining trend channel, but today’s big gap up move does suggest it will. The indicators also favor a breakout. The RSI just moved into positive territory and the PMO triggered a crossover BUY signal today. Stochastics are also confirming as they rise again toward positive territory above net neutral (50).
We also follow the volatility index for Crude Oil ($OVX). As with the VIX on its inverted scale, we look where it is in relation to its moving average to determine internal strength and weakness. Currently it is oscillating above its moving average which implies internal strength. We also would like to point out that we could be looking at an intermediate-term double-bottom forming.
TLT also saw a new PMO crossover, but to the downside. This PMO SELL signal looks very dangerous as it is coming in very overbought territory. The correction in interest rates is over in our opinion so we expect TLT to return to the strong support zone at the November lows. Price managed to close above the 50-day EMA, but it is barely hanging on. The RSI moved into negative territory and Stochastics are dropping vertically. This appears to be the end of the rally in TLT as the 20-year yield recovers.
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