Future Retirement Success
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Stocks

Future Retirement Success

Stocks

Has Rate Cut Anticipation Run Its Course?

by January 18, 2024
January 18, 2024
Has Rate Cut Anticipation Run Its Course?

The Fed stopped raising rates in July, and by mid-October yields had peaked. Since then yields have begun to decline in anticipation of the Fed beginning rate cuts this year. At this point it appears that yields have found support and may possibly bounce or begin moving sideways. This chart is a little dense, so let’s try and clarify the technicals.

The next chart shows durations of five years or longer. Clearly they have broken out of the three month declining trend, so we anticipate that they will trend higher for a while.

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

By comparison, shorter duration yields, two years and lower, present a much different picture. First, the very shortest durations, one month to three months, have not declined much at all. This accounts for the increased inversion between long and short duration yields. Additionally, while the one and two year yields have pulled back somewhat, they have not broken out of their declining trends yet. This will probably change as the longer duration yields continue to advance.

The Dynamic Yield Curve chart on StockCharts.com shows the severity of the yield inversion that currently exists. This should be abated somewhat as longer duration yields rise, but currently we have no expectation that the inversion will go away.

Conclusion: Yields have been declining for about three months, but most of the decline is concentrated in durations of five years and longer. This will alleviate some of the short versus long duration inversion that exists, but it is not likely to erase it. Significantly, the longer duration yields have broken their declining trends and will probably trend higher until rate cut fever returns.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Alert Chart List

DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List

DecisionPoint Sector Chart List

DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Fashion For Thought: Nailing Your Clothing Brands Identity
next post
How to optimize manufacturing quality through advanced data analytics and automation

You may also like

Trading With the Williams Money Flow Index

August 25, 2023

Sizable Selloff: Fed Minutes Crushes Stock Market, Yields...

August 16, 2023

The Wisdom of Waiting for Your Pitch

August 3, 2023

Week Ahead: Consolidation Likely As NIFTY Tests Crucial...

December 7, 2024

GNG TV: Rotation into Industrials, New “Go” Trend

June 30, 2023

Equities Remain in Strong “Go” Trend, Powered by...

September 23, 2024

Visualizing the Holdings for a Dual Momentum Rotation...

June 3, 2024

Dancing with the Market

April 28, 2023

Top 10 Charts to Watch in December 2023

December 8, 2023

NVDA Stock Split Launches S&P 500 Higher

June 10, 2024

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • ‘Congress must act’: Nonprofit study exposes green energy org’s ties to CCP interests while undermining US

      June 11, 2025
    • GOP congressman takes major step toward gubernatorial announcement

      June 11, 2025
    • DOJ argues Trump may cancel Biden-era national monuments

      June 11, 2025
    • Government’s spending surge to trigger significant tax rises, says leading advisory firm

      June 11, 2025
    • Republican senator teams up with Democrat to push $15 per hour minimum wage plus annual inflation increases

      June 11, 2025
    • House of Lords AI summit at London Tech Week warns of ‘skills cliff edge’ threatening UK’s competitive future

      June 11, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (8,184)
    • Investing (2,027)
    • Politics (15,595)
    • Stocks (3,141)
    • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: futureretirementsuccess.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 futureretirementsuccess.com | All Rights Reserved