The trouble with bonds is best portrayed by this long-term chart. Bonds were in a rising trend for about forty years, but the trend line was broken in 2022. This breakdown and subsequent price activity implies that bonds are going to be in a long-term falling trend for years to come. Note that the monthly PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) is deeply below the zero line, a level that hasn’t been reached for forty years. And except for a brief dip in 2018, it hasn’t been below the zero line for forty years. Let’s go to the next chart for a closer look at what has happened after the 2022 breakdown.
After the rising trend line was broken in 2022, the first significant formation was a bullish falling wedge (green lines), a formation that we normally expect will resolve to the upside, which it did. After the falling wedge breakout, a bearish rising wedge eventually formed (purple lines), bearish because they normally resolve to the downside. It broke down in November. Now we can see horizontal support at about 108. The monthly PMO has topped below the zero line, which expresses pure weakness, so our outlook is bearish at this time.
Conclusion: Our long-term outlook for bonds is bearish. With bonds having broken a long-term rising trend line, we have to assume that they will trend downward for many years to come. We should expect occasional months-long rallies, but it is most likely that they will fail.
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